Romney climbs, McCain drops, Giuliani and Gingrich stay the same. The latest Rasmussen poll is in, and it holds good news for Mitt Romney. Out of the four front runners, Romney is still in last place, but he appears to be gaining strength – the only candidate to rise in the latest poll. Here is what the most recent results look like:
Rudy Giuliani —- 33% (nc)
John McCain —– 17% (-2)
Newt Gingrich — 13% (nc)
Mitt Romney —- 10% (+2)
It appears that this gain for Romney comes directly at McCain’s expense. As for Gingrich, he has not showed particular interest in running and has made positive comments about Romney in the past week. I do not believe that Gingrich will run, I believe he will eventually endorse Romney (the most Conservative candidate of the 3).
I want to show off a senario in which Romney could very well take the nomination (not that this is the only senario where he could do so):
First, lets assume two things: 1) Gingrich does not run; 2) McCain continues to drop in the polls. I believe that if the above scenario continues to play out, Gingrich will endorse Romney, sending almost all of his support to the Romney camp. That would put Romney at 27%. Then, if McCain’s numbers continue to drop, and he chooses to drop out, I believe he would avoid endorsing any candidate, splitting his support. Since a majority of Republicans are Conservative, that could send about 60% of his supporters to the Romney Camp and 40% to the Giuliani side. That now puts the race at: Giuliani 40%, Romney 37%. This is a dead-heat by most standards. Once Giuliani begins to face serious questions on social issues, it is likely he will loose at least some Conservative support. Add in undecideds going in favor of Romney (lets say 60-40), and you have Romney with a lead going into the early Primaries.