Pre-Debate Rundown

Who has the most to gain in the Republican debates? Who has the most to loose? Who has to prove themselves? I’ve compiled a pre-debate rundown for my site.


Who Has the Most to Gain?

1) Mitt Romney, Former Massachusetts Governor– Romney has much of what you would expect in a Republican candidate, but he has had trouble getting a jump-start in national polls. His positions are Conservative, his record is solid, and he carries no major baggage, yet, perhaps because he is not a national figure, he has had trouble in the polls. A good performance in the debate will establish a stronger national profile, and draw more attention in his direction.

2) John McCain, Arizona SenatorMcCain was once considered to be the man to beat, but he has slipped, falling far behind Giuliani. Even Romney, who’s numbers are considerable low, may find himself ahead of McCain within the next few weeks. If John McCain can show himself to be a strong candidate and a firm Conservative, he may be able to reverse his trend of sliding poll numbers.

Who has the most to loose?

1) Rudy Giuliani, Former Mayor of New YorkAs the current front-runner, Giuliani cannot perform any better than he already is doing. His expectations will be highest, meaning he is most likely to have a disappointing performance. Whats more is that Rudy’s stances on issues are outside of the Republican mainstream. With his liberal positions on abortion, gays, and guns, he is going to need to give Conservative a good reason to keep supporting him. Giuliani is in the lead right now because of 9/11, his leadership after the terrorist attacks lead people to see him as the strongest defense-oriented candidate. If either Romney or McCain prove themselves to be strong military candidates, Giuliani could begin to fall, and quickly.

2) John McCain, Arizona Senator – McCain is in an interesting spot on my list, making both of my “most to gain/loose” lists. The reason? Because, just as a strong performance could be a new spark to his candidacy, a poor showing, or even an average showing (if other candidates like Romney and Giuliani perform well), could further damage his campaign. McCain will be walking a thin line in these debates, trying to woo back Conservatives who have deserted for other candidates.

The Issues – Strengths and Weaknesses

1) Rudy GiulianiGiuliani will want to focus on all things defense. Terrorism, Security, Iran, all of these will play to Giuliani’s favor. He wil l want to avoid social issues or anything to do with his messy personal life. These issues will do him no favors and could hurt him among Evangelical Christians.

2) John McCain – If McCain wants to play to Conservatives, my best advise to focus on  spending. McCain is a strong anti-pork Republican. Like Giuliani, avoid personal issues. McCain also needs to dodge his past opposition to the Bush tax cuts and any thing related to his age. As for the war, McCain cannot avoid the issue, so the best advise I can give is: TREAD CAREFULLY. He needs to stick to a simple position, say he wants victory, and that Iraqis must do their part.

3) Mitt Romney– Romney is an interesting case. Pretty much all of his current positions are Conservative, so his aim should be to cover all basis and display his Conservative positions. He also needs to combat any remaining scepticism regarding past changes in positions on social issues. Romney also should take time to tout his experience as a reformer and budget cutter. There is very little Romney should avoid, but I will say he should also say away from personal matter, particularly religion, and even his family. These are not so much liabilities as they are distractions – things that take time away from the discussions on issues.

What Has to be Proved?

1) Rudy Giuliani – Giuliani, as I have said before, needs to give people a reason to vote for him. The 9/11 factor will only carry him so far. He has to give people a reason to choose him over the more Conservative Romney and McCain. If he can’t do that, he is in trouble.

2) John McCain – McCain has to try to stop his bleeding support level. He needs to prove that he is a strong Conservative, and that his age will not effect a McCain Presidency.

3) Mitt Romney– Mitt’s biggest challenge is going to be proving that he can play ball with the better known McCain and Giuliani. He also has to strike hard at criticism about his past positions. Other than that, just don’t do anything stupid. Romney has strong positions, and is comfortable in debates and in public. As long as he sticks to character, he can win.

 Thats the rundown on the debate. I’ll have more Thursday, both pre- and post- debate. I’ll also be keeping an eye on other sites and news networks to see what the consensus is on the winner(s). Please feel free to add your own analysis in the comments section.

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5 Comments

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5 responses to “Pre-Debate Rundown

  1. Interesting break-down of what we AND the candidates should expect. I have a feeling that one of the “outside” candidates will be saying a few things to gain attention — something like what Mike Gravel did.

    I’m expecting Romney to do well. Such is his nature, at least.

  2. Liz

    Think McCain will bring his wife? Can’t say I’ve ever had a visual on her. He is married, right?

  3. Gary Hart, April 29,2007

    Your letter is a responsible and refreshing stride toward the truth. There are “many truths” along the path in a journey of this nature. Where one stops as the destination is a matter of intention. To those who are unaware and believe what they are told, often have no means of knowing whether it is the whole picture or the real truth.

    The fact is that Rudy Giuliani is a criminal and a member of a criminal enterprise. Others involved in the enterprise are President Bush, Vice President Cheney, Bernard Kerik and too many to mention in this letter. They did not want to stop 9/11 they intended to let it happen, then profit from it. Giuliani is one of those who made enormous profits in the first Twenty Four Hrs. Those involved already effectively owned the stock of select companies, which would be selling technology and related products/services post attack. Members in “The Criminal Enterprise” had been paid well before 9/11. Americans were sold out in a sinister plot, which transacted its early deals in the Middle East by Dick Cheney and others, years before the Clintons stepped foot in the White House. Bernard Kerik and I met in what seemed unintended in 1995 in a Luncheonette in N.J. It was not an accident on the part of Kerik and others. By 1998 Kerik asked me to be his best man. An important step in their plan in 1998, which has now failed. Their advance planning techniques are effective to most. “Plausible deniability” being the single most frequent trait in a simple pattern. A common calling card when any bright prosecutor is an active criminal disguised as a prosecutor. When they could not buy me or my services they decided to ruin my credibility, starting by framing me in a Federal indictment in March 2000, based on a report by Bernard Kerik’s best friend special agent Gary Uher who I briefed on their criminal activity in 1998.

    For many years I have been working to expose the truth, in an effective yet responsible manner about Bush, Cheney, Giuliani, kerik and a criminal enterprise. Objectives being to prevent as much of the harm and damage to our country and to see these reprobates brought to Justice. The record of my work in this regard is clear. I am the one who exposed Giuliani and Kerik In November 2004 to the N.Y. Daily News reporter Russ Buetner. No one else did. They subsequently attacked my two minor daughters, Talia and Ava in a gruesome manner. They got my ex-wife to go along because she coincidently had her own tragic-secret to hide so it served her purpose.

    Included in the more than 2,600 audio recordings I made of conversations with others, I have recorded Government officials saying they were told “it is the republican party Line to destroy Larry Ray”, before I exposed Giuliani and Kerik in November 2004. Why would they want to do that? I agreed to work with the New York City Department of Investigation on the Kerik/Giuliani investigation Dec 20, 2004. Walter Arsenault had contacted me after I put out the news in Nov/Dec 2004. It seems D.O.I.was actually a “Trojan Horse” intending to do damage control, find out what evidence I had, secure it, bury the investigation, bury me and I can prove exactly that. Where were they before I gave it to the Daily News? These criminals fleeced New York on the watch of The First Deputy Commissioner of New York City’s Dept. of Investigation Walter Arsenault. During the 2 yr investigation Walter Arsenault was in regular communication with the Bush White House. Being that Kerik had to step down after being nominated by President Bush to head America’s office of Homeland Security, why hadn’t the F.B.I. launched a thorough investigation? After all, it involved National Security, it involved the President of the United States, it crossed state lines and it happened in the White House. I believe the jurisdiction belonged to the F.B.I. Seems Federal to me. Why wasn’t the president outraged and responsible enough to order the F.B.I. to investigate? What was the Attorney General of the United States thinking ? Is Antonio Gonzales even allowed to think ? How come Gonzales did not take action? What about Vice President Cheney’s take charge personality? Cheney may have been to busy, maybe aboard the Sequoia with Greenspan as his guest.

    The F.B.I. is the best Investigative Law Enforcement Agency in the entire world in my opinion. I have worked with the F.B.I. on and off for twelve years and have experience with different agencies in various parts of the world for twenty-six years. The men and women I have worked with are honorable, bright, dedicated and well trained. They were told to stand down regarding Giuliani/Kerik. Not what these men and women wanted to do. Instead an agency in N.Y.C. did the investigation.

    Had the D.O.I. done their job in the nineties, Giuliani and Kerik would have never been thru the gates at the White House, they would have been behind the gates of a prison. If others and I were aware, so was Walter Arsenault.

    We had been working in the Eastern European Region and in 1994 it became clear to me that there existed a very dedicated effort to execute a large scale terrorist attack on the United States. None of us knew at the time in 1994 the attack would come to be known as 9/11. My effort since to expose the truth has been unnaturally difficult, unnaturally long and unnaturally costly. The American Terrorists; the very corrupt Bush/Cheney White House, and many corrupt politicians and officials such as Gonzales, Chertoff, Giuliani/Kerik , and Wolfowitz to only name a few. The ENEMY WITHIN.

    My two little girls and I have paid an unimaginable price and still are. Hurting my children is more painful than every other tactic they used to discourage and /or stop me in their effort to make sure I did not expose what I discovered in my work in Eastern Europe during the Bush Sr. Presidency regarding activities of Dick Cheney and others.

    N.A.T.O. I had been brought in to the Kosovo Crisis in an effort to avoid the senseless casualties to come in a ground offensive. I feel the Pentagon very accurately estimated anticipated casualties if a ground assault commenced. After I listened to the intelligence briefing the first night I was in Belgium at N.A.T.O. Headquarters, based on my analysis I presented a recommendation, which I believed to be the only available option. All in the room with the exception of Colonel Sponbeck agreed with me and asked how do we implement. I designed and submitted my tactical plan as I saw it. The necessary steps were completed over the next two days and I was then authorized. My first stop in the operation was Moscow. I accomplished both objectives, the cessation of the bombing campaign and mitigate the need for a ground offensive, thus avoiding the senseless loss of ground troops.

    I had also been tasked after flight 800 went down while Departing N.Y., to locate and retrieve any of the surplus Stinger Missiles we supplied when we appropriately backed the Mujahidin during the Afghan Conflict. I was tasked originally by the F.B.I. I located and arranged to take that load of stingers out of circulation. There were logistical problems for the Bureau and time not being friendly I completed that task with the C.I.A. I am told it was the largest load recovered at the time, which concerned me since I was tasked due to an emergent need, before that I had never paid attention that program and I would have thought we as a Nation would have been more successful in that regard.

    Mr. Hart I presume you have more than enough experience to know that any individual who is capable of successfully attaining objectives as the ones I state in this letter must be regarded in a particular manner to be tasked to begin with. I am and always have been proud of the fact I am an American.

    The current exposure of President Bush, Vice President Cheney, and others yet to be named, for lying to the American people about the link between Sadam Hussein and Al queda is directly due to my effort. It is well documented. The Washington Post Easter Sunday Cover Article, about the Bush White House and U.S. Attorney Gonzales knowing in advance about Bernard kerik Rudy Giuliani happened because I gave it to the Washington Post. Take a look at what was going on before and after that article.

    Cheney and others are responsible for the murders of United States Marines and other U.S. Military Personnel. How did it get this far?

    From President Bush, V.P. Cheney, Mike Chertoff, Bernard kerik all the way down to Judge Thomas Dilts, Judge Julie Marino, Judge Anne Bartlett, the D.Y.F.S office in Somerset County Court, Union County Prosecutors Office, Livingston twp and others in New Jersey will be exposed and charged for their crimes. Then it will be the responsibility of the Justice system in America to administer the law in a balanced and honest manner, nothing less, nothing more. It is of paramount importance to all of us the system do as it is intended in order for our country to begin healing. No witch hunts and burnings, yet no special favors either. All Americans and the entire world are already watching.

    Senator Hart, I was aware pre 9/11 of the reports you reference, including briefings with N.Y. Port Authority. Giuliani did do things, one was to build the Ultra Expensive Emergency Command Office in the World Trade Center, just one more for people to ask ” how could Rudy have made a mistake like that “? It is simple he didn’t make a mistake, it is the same pattern of his advance planning, he intended it to be one of several seeds of doubt to the public, worst yet maybe a jury. The same as asking, how could a man as smart as Rudy make someone who, is as ignorant, has a record of ties to organized crime and as uneducated as Bernard Kerik not only commissioner of corrections but then make him the New York City Police Commissioner? To ask it is to answer it.

    It is interesting after I fought alone for so long and have endured so much stating all along that Bush/Cheney wants America to go to war with Iraq for a sinister criminal agenda and finally get it out in the media, now George Tenet comes out stating the same thing. Curious.
    I hope some committee is already prepared to plug the wholes in our National Security due to many people who hold positions across the country in Homeland Security jobs as installs by Giuliani, Cheney, Kerik, or Chertoff.

    I am confident Mr. Giuliani and others will soon be charged, arrested and in jail awaiting trial for more than just witness tampering. I know, since I am one of the witness’s Giuliani has tampered with.

    They are guilty of Treason.

    I have recently contacted the office of Hillary Clinton since she wants to question Rudy Giuliani in an open forum regarding the removal of the World Trade Center debris. I have not heard back from her.

    I have supportive evidence and can prove any of the above. I am willing to speak with you further if you like. You can contact me by email nisacray@gmail.com or can always ask Chuck Pitman, or Jim Jones, two very honorable friends.

    Warm Regards,
    Lawrence Ray

  4. Mitt Romney should shine, McCain should stumble, and Giuliani will waver in the winds of a battle between the rest of the candidates as to who has the superior conservative credentials among them.

    Mitt Romney will be able to attract a huge infusion of new support if he does not stumble. He will be able to highlight his accomplishments, ideas, plans, vision for America, gravitas, wit, wisdom and brilliance. This is the time that Mitt could begin to finally get a substantial amount of the undecided Republican conservative vote that could ultimately result in almost unstoppable momentum for his campaign. It is my opinion that Fred Thomson won’t get any better in the polls after this debate, unless he enters the race…soon.

    The reason why Americans aren’t saying in opinion polls that they will vote for Mitt now is because they haven’t seen him shine in debate form, showcasing his excellent communication skills, depth of knowledge on the issues, and his superb skill of responding to questions with charm, frankness and old fashioned honesty as a multifaceted dynamic leader cultivating attention to his many ideas and plans.

    Romney will be seen as the fresh face and McCain as the establishment candidate. I believe that Giuliani must do well at this debate to keep his numbers up at current levels. I think that all the rest of the candidates could only affect one of the top three candidates through this debate, but not get any momentum that could get them to the high tier.

    Go Mitt Go!

    Denny sMITTen

  5. Does anyone know exactly who this Larry Ray Character is?

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