Does Fred Have a Chance?

You hear alot of buzz about Fred Thompson, about how he is a “true conservative”, about how he is a “Reagan Conservative”, how he is the savior of the GOP, and about how he will swoop in an win the nomination with ease and win in a landslide against Hillary. However, as more facts about Thompson become known, and as the face of the race evolves with time, I am beginning to have serious doubts about Thompson’s ability to win the nomination. Its not that his ideas are not Conservative, but, when news first came that Thompson was considering jumping in, Rudy was the front-runner by a huge margin, McCain was hovering a distant second, and Romney was a no-name third. Thompson would be a well-known, well-liked Conservative attempting to take away the lead from a RINO.

 Now however, Romney is increasing his support, particularly in important “first” states. Of the three traditional “firsts” (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina) Romney is leading in two of them. Giuliani is also falling, and McCain is, at best, treading water. If Thompson were to win the nomination, it seems unlikely he could do it without winning either Iowa or New Hampshire. To do this, he has to unseat not a RINO like Rudy, but another Conservative. A different candidate like Gingrich might be able to label Romney as a “flip-flopper”, but not Thompson – he is in the same boat, having made the same changes on abortion. Thompson would have to mount a long, tough campaign to convince voters to support him, and Thompson is no fan of campaigning. Whats more is that Thompson has no major accomplishments to his name. He was not the author of a major bill, was never a mayor or governor, and does not even have a long senate career.

I like Romney, but I would not mind Thompson, but I have to wonder wether or not he could win the nomination – particularly if Romney continues to climb.

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