The Polls Just Don’t Add Up

 Trying to read and interpret polls on the Presidential election that are this are out is extremely difficult. Generally, upward movement is good, and downward movement is bad. However, recent polls in New Hampshire and Iowa are throwing everything off. A couple weeks ago, there were polls that showed Romney with huge leads in Iowa and New Hampshire. Now, polls in those states are showing him without those leads, although still doing well. The polls that first revealed his lead made sense, coming after the debates (both of which Romney won). These polls….don’t. Romney has said nothing, done nothing, and had no negative press that would cause this big of a drop in the polls.

Take a look (courtesy of wiki):

Iowa
New_Hampshire

Obviously, something is wrong, and I don’t know which polls to believe. The only thing I can think of is to wait for more polls from the polling groups that showed Romney in the lead, but I find it hard to believe that Romney (who has had consistent momentum in polls) has truly lost these leads to McCain – particularly when McCain is taking extremely unpopular positions.

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4 Comments

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4 responses to “The Polls Just Don’t Add Up

  1. Dear A

    I usually don’t trust the poll. You believe Romney is a good candidate and other Republican bloggers seem to agree with you, that’s all it matters. Polls don’t mean anything unless you are President Bush.

    I also think that Romney is a good candidate but I wish I was on the right.

  2. Why do you wish you were on the right? If your positions are pro-life, pro-family, pro-military, and pro-strong economy, if you believe we should beat the terrorists into the dust, if you think people should earn a living, then you are a Conservative – even if you are not a member of the GOP.

  3. tommyd4

    You can’t really trust these polls. I am a Thompson supporter, but also a realist. You really have to look at them for an outside perspective, and hesitate to make any judgements til you match the trends. For instance, the SC poll over the weekend didn’t use the correct methodology when polling the participants. I know it looked good for Romney supporters, but it was a flawed poll. Another example is the InsideAdvantage poll that came out over the weekend. It looked good for my candidate, but I am not sold on it because their poll in South Carolina had Gingrich polling higher than Thompson or McCain, and that’s not realistic, at this point.

  4. GeorgiaMom

    The polling firm is American Research Group. That is all you need to know. Research the research firm.

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