Looking at the Map

Alright, so Romney is doing well. Thats good. However, he is going to need to do even better to win the nomination. At this point, Romney leads in two early primary states (Iowa, New Hampshire), is second in the third (South Carolina, where he trails Fred Thompson), is second in his home state of Massachusetts (to Giuliani), leads in Michigan and Utah, and needs to work on bringing his Florida numbers up. As for the other early state, Wyoming, I could not find any polls. So, lets take a look at the map:

States in Dark Red indicate a Romney lead. States in Redish-Pink indicate other early primary states OR other important states. Of those in Pink, only Massachusetts is not an early primary – but it is Romney’s home state – and it would do him well to win there. As of right now, Romney needs to focus on Florida and South Carolina. Thompson leads in South Carolina – it should be easy enough to get that state into our column once Thompson announces (opening himself to criticisim and forcing him to actually campaign), but Florida is probably going to take more effort. Even if Michigan moves up to the same date as Florida (Jan. 29), it would be an extremely bad loss for Romney if he can’t take the state away from Giuliani. As far as Nevada goes, there have not been any recent polls with which to judge by – the last showed Romney within the MOE.

Romney needs to kick it up a notch in FL and SC, if he can capture them, he will either be leading or statistically tied in ALL early primary states. Romney has a comfortable lead in Iowa, and it would not be a bad idea for him to shift focus out of that state for a while – he could move back in later if


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One response to “Looking at the Map

  1. Everything here depends on whether or not history will repeat itself. Will 2008 be the continuation of a primary cycle where the winner of Iowa and New Hampshire takes the prize?

    The “New Hampshire” effect, as note political scholar Tilman Lumpp has noted, indicates that “the outcome of the first election then creates an asymmetry in the candidates’ incentives to campaign in the next district, which endogenously increases the equilibrium probability that the first winner wins in further districts.” In other words, The momentum factor of early primary wins is very real.

    Add to this the notion that the GOP primaries mostly utilize “winner-takes-all” allocations.

    Add to this the widely accepted academic notion that the strongest organization with the strongest funds wins out since 1978.

    Add to this the seriously strong positive / negative rates that Romney receives…

    … By the fall, the notion might be… it’s his to lose.

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