New SC Poll is Good News for Romney

Alright, I admit that, at first glance, the most recent South Carloina poll does not look good for Romney. The Results are:

Fred Thompson 25%
Rudy Giuliani 21%
Mitt Romney 11%
John McCain 7%
Mike Huckabee 5%
Others – <1%
Undecided 28%

Yes, I am aware that Romney is in a distant Third, and is trailing both Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani, but I want you to look at two numbers. Firstly, check out the Giuliani numbers. He is polling EXTREMELY high. Now Giuliani is a pro-choice, divorced, northerner. Those are three strikes (of varying effect) against him. Trust me, Giuliani is not going to keep polling that highly. Once he starts to fall (Actually, he has already started), his support will probably move into the “undecided” column – and that is good for Romney (read on for an explanation). Secondly, the high number of undecideds. Keep in mind, Fred Thompson is an extremely well known, mostly conservative, southerner. Much of his support unquestionably derives from southerners who are hesitant to support anyone from the “liberal” northeast. Those who are currently undecided (keep in mind, a number tiwce as high as Thompson’s lead over Romney) are the people who are waiting to get the full picture, they care less about local appeal and more about issues, experience, and vison. These are the people who are going to do a “side-by-side” comparrison of the candidates, and that gives Romney, the more experienced, more charismatic, more idealistic candidate, the advantage. He can easily take half, if not more, with the rest divided between the others. Combine that with momentum from other early wins (there should be plenty), and you have a Romney win in South Carolina.

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10 Comments

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10 responses to “New SC Poll is Good News for Romney

  1. Richard

    Three words for ya!

    Ron Paul baby!

  2. I have a better chance at winning the nomination than Ron Paul does. I don’t even know why he is in our party. Clearly not a republican.

  3. Ron Paul, is an Independent, not a republican! He is not going to get the nomination!

    Romney is the best candidate, And he has my vote!

    Matt

  4. If Ron Paul had a nickel for every internet Ron Paul Spammer he could get nominated on sheer cash flow. Unfortunately his supporters are all talk and no action. The poor guy has not raised any money at all. He really needs a 3rd party.

    Now regarding the actual content of this article. The only thing it does prove is that McCain will loose ALL of the early primary states. He’s finished.

  5. 311polo

    While I strongly support Mitt Romney and I envy your optimism, I think SC is Thompson’s to lose and (as of right now)I think most of that undecided vote will go to Thompson. It could be a run away. That being said, Thompson is still a relative unknown (not face recognition, but policy wise) and his southern charm can get him only so far. So if he continues being poor on the stump and as people consider his stance, Thompson could be out before he gets going which would open a huge door in SC, ripe for Romney to pick.
    http://www.dryflypolitics.com

  6. Michael

    If Romney can take south carolina, that would be a communications triumph that would even outshine the Gipper in his best moments. If he can do that, it is all over.

  7. jon

    actualy ron paul is a libertarian, but who cares, i don’t.

  8. It is Thompson’s to lose, if he decides to run. I for one say, get in or get out. Enough of the reluctantcy. If you can’t handle the fire, you shouldn’t be president. These numbers are good for Romney. He has shown great stability while others have come and gone in bright flashes.

  9. Good points. I think this is good news for Romney in that it shows him beating McCain. If he takes Iowa and New Hampshire, I think it’s likely the momentum could carry him through SC. Let’s hope so!

  10. Come join the troops and show your support at the Fred Thompson Forum. We need supporters at the new site. http://fredthompsonforum.com

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