Next Step: 20%

Romney deffinately has upward momentum. That is undeniable, and now that he is within 9% of the lead, the question becomes: “How long before he hits 20%?” The answer to that is unknown, though I would probably put the date at the end of September. Of course, any number of things could make that date sooner, later, or non-existent. However, at least for now, Romney is on the move. The latest Rasmussen poll has him back within 9% of the lead (currently held by Giuliani). Here is the poll:

Rasmussen Reports Tracking Poll – 8/8/07

Rudy Giuliani – 24%
Fred Thompson – 23%
Mitt Romney – 15%
John McCain – 11%

Obviously things don’t look good for McCain. Though he holds an advantage over Romney in electoral votes, its slim, and is sure to be erased within the next week or so (still waiting on a reliable NH poll). I would not be surprised if McCain is out before November. Keep an eye on Thompson to, his momentum seems to be gone, and he will need to really boost his support if he wants to win the nomination.

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