Guessing Game

Alright, I’m currently in the middle of fighting a cold, so my energy level is a bit low at this point, so I probably won’t be updating the blog in any big way over the next couple days. Instead, I’ll open this thread for predictions about the 2008 GOP primary. Predictions you can make include, but are not limited to:

  • Will we have a split convention?
  • Will Fred fly or flop?
  • Will Romney keep his early state lead?
  • Is  MCain back in it?
  • How much attention should national polls get?

…and anything else that is relevent that you can think of.



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3 responses to “Guessing Game

  1. jrcutler

    Split convention – I think there is a 50-50 chance of that. It all depends on who cares enough about the
    Republican party, winning a few states and robbing 10 percent from one of the top 2 people is going to really hurt the party. If McCain and Thompson stay in and Gingrich jumps in, there will be a split convention. If either McCain or Thompson drops out, good chance of a front-runner taking it – like Romney.

    Fred will flop, and if he stays in the race until the end, he may steal some key states away from Romney, which could make for a split convention. He will never be the president of the United states, but he may become the nominee at the split convention.

    Romney will keep his early leads in the early states – early states know too much about Rudy, Thompson, and McCain to be swayed from Romney to them.

    McCain is out of the race, he only stands as a thorn in the side of the Republican party as long as he stays in. The campaign is not working for him, and I wish he would quit now. If he holds out to the bitter end like Thompson, he could make for a split convention

    With characters like Thompson and Guiliani in the mix of things, I think national polls are pretty much worthless now. They will be worth a lot come January or even December, but not before then! The only way they could matter is if the national polls somewhat coincide with early state polls.

  2. bethtopaz

    Very good analysis.

  3. frofreak

    Will we have a split convention?

    This depends on whether of not Romney can pull it off in Florida. SC is not necessary, though he needs second to keep the momentum coming from Iowa, NH, Mich, Nevada, Wyoming wins (which seems at least very plausible, at his point). If Romney takes Florida (which is anyones guess at this point, he is about to start campaigning there in ernest), then he wins the nomination (he will take the majority of states on supertuesday and most if not all of those following). If we loses Florida, especially to Rudy and Thompson (3rd place), then it will be a split convention, because teusday will go 3 way, most of the biggies to rudy. But a split convention could help GMR in the end, anyway. Political insiders favor Romney, and the convention will be made up of jsut that, political insiders, people who follow politics closely. Once their votes are not bound by the votes of their states, you could see many going to romney who went to rudy in the initial split.

    Will Fred fly or flop?

    I hesitate to make a definitive prediction here. He hasn’t come on to the scene with a bang, like he needed to, IMO. He hasn’t impressed in his first week or so, and his media support seems to be dwindleing, due to his campaign shuffling and issue waffling. Don’t count him out, though, he is still mighty popular with a lot of people. You may not agree with their rationale, but you can’t discount his support. Prediction: I say flop, in the end.

    Will Romney keep his early state lead?

    Yes, and add to it once FDT starts to decline. Look for Huckabee to start rising even more, but he won’t close the gap, because GMR will keep rising as well. Sure, he has seemed to plateu in the last couple of weeks, but I think this is because people are taking a second look at FDT now that he is finally in. In the next few months they will have to make a decision, and these voters take this very seriously. After comparing Mitt and Fred, my bet is that they will join the majority of their fellow citizens in support of Mitt.

    Is MCain back in it? No. There is a reason he declined as much as he did in the first place. He is a terrible manager. He had the strongest position of anyone in the GOP field coming itno this race, and he squandered it fatally. His poor management skills, those which make him unfit to be president, IMO, have not changed. His support for illegal immigrants and campain finance reform, among others, have already critically wounded him. He may get a bounce every now and again (form a strong debate perfomance, etc.), but he is not going to come back into contention. Especially not in Iowa and NH.

    How much attention should national polls get? They’re fun to watch. They are a good indication how informed the national electorate is, more than anything. They have a very poor predictive value for who might actually win the nomination (or the general, for that matter). They also show us how actions/statements/gaffes by candidates can affect the perception people have of the candiates. When I say perception, I mean of course the impression people get of a candidate based on superficial issues, not the substance of a candidate. That is why we see media events affecting national polls more that state polls. As the electorate nationally becomes more informed, look to see the national polls moving in the direction of the early states, especially once the early primaries come and go.

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