Rasmussen Update

I know I have not done a polling update in a long time on here, but I think it might be good to give my readers a general idea of what national opinion looks like at the moment, along with some commentary below. Here it is:

Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll – September 28, 2007

Fred Thompson – 24%

Rudy Giuliani – 22%

Mitt Romney – 12%

John McCain – 9%

Mike Huckabee – 7%

Fred Thompson:When Fred Thompson officially entered, it looked like he was going to blow away the competition. Within the first two days of his candidacy, Thompson had passed Giuliani and gained the support of nearly 30% of the Republican electorate. Since then, however, his campaign – much like his pre-announcement run  – has been a tangled mess of embarrassing mistakes, poor answers to questions posed by reporters, and a kind of clarify-reclarify waltz regarding remarks he made concerning UBL. The future direction of Thompson’s support – be it up or down – could very well be decided within the next two weeks. The Q3 fundraising deadline, as well as Thompson’s first debate early next month, could very well determine exactly where the Thompson campaign goes from here.

Rudy Giuliani: Although he is no longer the undisputed frontrunner in the Republican Primary race, Giuliani is still in a fairly comfortable position. He leads in most other national polls, and still holds onto leads in big states such as New York and California. While winning these states will not even come close to handing him the nomination, they could be, if all else fails, a fall-back plan to give Rudy a chance if the race is not determined before the convention.

All that said, Rudy still faces many challenges. At the present time, the GOP electorate is still overwhelmingly ignorant about Giuliani’s liberal stance on abortion, and, with a Republican party that opposes abortion by at least a 2-1 ratio, he is virtually guaranteed to take a hit once people learn where he stands. He also faces a Romney problem: with Mitt leading in all but two early states, and Rudy himself in a fight to keep Florida in his column, how does he stop “mittmentum” from being the death of his candidacy? To be honest, I don’t think there is an easy answer to that question. There are basically two states that Rudy could use to attempt to stop Mitt, each with its own advantages and risks, and that will be the topic of my next post.

 Mitt Romney:The last couple of weeks have been anything but easy for the Romney campaign, between the Thompson bump, fundraising efforts, and a closer New Hampshire race, Romney has had no time to put his feet up. Unfortunately, thanks to a bad cold he picked up on the campaign trail, that is exactly what he will be doing this weekend. Its a good thing too, because, while national polls are once again showing Romney gains, and the end of Q3 will allow him more time to campaign, the New Hampshire numbers do not look like they are going correct themselves. While not even close to being a reason for panic, he is going to have to go back to the Granite State to make sure he has a strong enough base there, allowing him to focus on improving in other areas. Romney is still a great candidate in a great position – he simply can’t let it get away.

 John McCain: Around the same time that Thompson took a wave of support all the way to the top of the polls, John McCain also improved – owing largely, in my opinion, to a better-than-expected (and better-than-usual) debate performance. Unfortunately for him, he is back to being a kind of after-thought, and with poor fundraising numbers expected to be released soon, he is going to have to deal with another round of negative press. Weather or not John McCain will have the resources to continue even a limited, early state strategy remains to be seen.

Mike Huckabee:Huckabee has showed signs of moving up in the polls – now roughly where Romney was in January – but there are three factors, that, in my opinion, will prevent Huckabee from becoming a real top-tier candidate. The first is time. While he is improving, he has now only three months to give himself some position of power that could allow him to win. Iowa is really the only place where this opportunity exists, and even there the opportunity is minimal. The second factor is cash. While Huckabee has some good ideas, it takes more than good ideas to win the nomination – it takes money. And money, unfortunately for him, is something he lacks. The third factor is some criticism (and in some cases, a little more than criticism) that he is a weak-on-immigration, nanny-stater. These positions, where he puts-obesity on par with terrorism, and calls opponents of illegal immigration “mean spirited”, would likely derail his candidacy in states outside of the South. Huckabee is a good guy, and he has done a good job, but I really don’t see him making significantly improving his standing.

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4 Comments

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4 responses to “Rasmussen Update

  1. Being from Tennessee I know about Fred Thompson. He never tells a lie even if it hurts him politically. If he does not know the answer to a question he will tell you so rather than fake it. He recently stirred up some of the religious followers by being precise in responding to a question about his church attendance. It may have lost him some votes but in the face of God he told the truth. That is why Fred Thompson grows on you.

    He tells you the opinion of Fred Thompson, not the opinion of the Republican Party. He slams George Bush and the current Administration if necessary. That is why Fred Thompson grows on you.

    Often his speeches roll off the top of his head, rather than copious notes, teleprompters, aide prompters and Hollywood tactics. He talks while he is thinking and thinks while he is talking. Most unusual for a politician. That is why Fred Thompson grows on you.

    There are no handlers behind the scene. Fred handles the handlers. When you see and listen to Fred you are seeing and listening to Fred Thompson, not a haircut or rehearsed sound bites or canned responses written by a team of writers. You are enjoying Fred the man, the way it used to be in the old days, like off the back of a train or the top of a load of hay. That is why Fred Thompson grows on you.

    You are watching a man who does not need fame. You are watching a man who does not need money. You are watching a man who is already in most homes, many worldwide, on TV. You are watching a man who has plenty of love by plenty of people. You are watching a man who’s wife was never the subject of tacky remarks. You are watching a man who never before was called dumb. You are watching a man who could wear his quality loafers anywhere and ride in a golf cart and never be made the butt of uncomplimentary and rude remarks by the nations press. You are watching a man who never was called a dog’s name by the top pundits. You are watching a man who takes the punches, and keeps on keeping on, because he loves his country more than his crudely ridiculed persona. That is why Fred Thompson grows on you.

    What do you think it is like going to bed as Fred Thompson? A man who stood back and watched to see what kind of race was being run out there in rant and rave land. A man who would not jump the fence until he absolutely knew he was the best for the job, based upon what he watched going down. A man who has been shot full of holes before he made a trial run, after he made a trial run and all claimed his money raising was poor when in fact it was excellent when the facts were known. Going to bed as Fred Thompson would be torture for the writer and most of us out there, I suspect. The man has guts and fortitude. That’s why Fred Thompson grows on you.

    He loves his country and he despises some of the things the future generations are going to bear based upon current legacy’s to be passed down. He is going to change that. Softballs and hard balls he can handle. Shame for America he cannot handle. That is why Fred Thompson grows on you.

    Every time Fred goes up in the poles, the foreign enemies shudder. They pay money to put him down. Our enemies do not want Fred in charge of America. They love the quitters. What nationality was the fellow who just got indited for donating huge sums to Hillary? I am close to making a unsubstantiated charge here, but he was not of American decent. The point is who really would you like leading our foreign affairs? Quitters, folks who change their minds about supporting our fighting men because you can’t run for President unless you claim you were duped.

    If you were duped by George Bush, how are you going to be against the Middle East dupers who have been duping for centuries? It is their way of life and the way they make a living. How can you stand up and claim you were duped by America and then be a quitter and expect votes? Well she is getting them. Amazing.

    The Clinton’s came to town in a used car and started out with two US Government salaries. They left the White House on their way, fairly comfortable and now they are as rich as a NY Cheesecake. White house memorabilia and furniture included. Do you suppose that came naturally?

    Fred Thompson planted his seed lately in a garden which was full of fertilizer already laid out for him to use in growing. He is growing upon the others fertilizer and he is growing upon you.


    Don Jones
    MyManFred.com

  2. jennifer

    I tend to agree with what Dobson said. He can’t talk his way out of a paper bag – he has no fire in his belly. I don’t think he has the physical energy to handle this job. I do like Fred – but he seems like too much of a sloth

  3. with Gingrich out of the race, Fred is, probably, my #2.

  4. jrcutler

    I’m going to decide on Thompson fully after the debate.

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