…gets an authorship on my blog with the job of posting and explaining all the latest polls.
Polls are not always easy to understand, and sometimes they require a more detailed explanation, and sometimes a series of polls come out that simply can’t be explained. That is what happened today. Firstly, a series of three, very encouraging polls for Mitt Romney came out. These include polls in Florida, Iowa, and a poll taken among Democrats about who they could most easily support:
Romney – 28% (25) Giuliani – 19% (22) McCain – 16% (12) Huckabee – 10% (6) Thompson – 6% (19) Tancredo – 3% Paul – 2% Hunter – 2%
Ok, so Romney is up, Rudy is down, and Thompson takes a massive hit. McCain and Huckabee also show moderate increases. Moving south:
Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Research Florida GOP Primary
Rudy Giuliani – 33% Mitt Romney – 17% Fred Thompson – 13% John McCain – 9% No opinion – 17%.
Once again, good news for Romney, his numbers are up, and he is in second place. He also performs well against Clinton, with nearly 1/3 of the electorate undecided. Finally, a poll from the land of liberals:
John McCain 34% Rudy Giuliani 22% Mitt Romney 22% Mike Huckabee 12% Ron Paul 2% Fred Thompson 1%
Ok, that is simple enough to understand, Mitt Romney gains just as much support from Democratic insiders even though his positions are more Conservative.
Overall, these polls paint an extremely positive picture for Romney, and you would expect to see corresponding gains in national polls, right? Well, no. In fact, Romney has fallen 5% nationally since the start of the week, and today’s tracking poll shows him polling below Huckabee. From Rasmussen:
Giuliani – 20% Thompson – 19% McCain – 14% Huckabee – 12% Romney – 11%
Individually, each of these polls could be explained, and, in fact, the top three can be explained together. Similarly, the individual occurances in the daily tracker could be explained (Romney falling, Huckabee rising, the race getting tighter). What doesn’t make sense is why Romney would be falling nationally, but increasing his leads in individual states – including ones where he is not blitzing the airways.