Ok, the first person to explain this…

…gets an authorship on my blog with the job of posting and explaining all the latest polls.

Polls are not always easy to understand, and sometimes they require a more detailed explanation, and sometimes a series of polls come out that simply can’t be explained. That is what happened today. Firstly, a series of three, very encouraging polls for Mitt Romney came out. These include polls in Florida, Iowa, and a poll taken among Democrats about who they could most easily support:

Rasmussen Reports New Hampshire Republican Primary

  • Romney – 28% (25)
  • Giuliani – 19% (22)
  • McCain – 16% (12)
  • Huckabee – 10% (6)
  • Thompson – 6% (19)
  • Tancredo – 3%
  • Paul – 2%
  • Hunter – 2%
  • Ok, so Romney is up, Rudy is down, and Thompson takes a massive hit. McCain and Huckabee also show moderate increases. Moving south:

    Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Research Florida GOP Primary

  • Rudy Giuliani – 33%
  • Mitt Romney – 17%
  • Fred Thompson – 13%
  • John McCain – 9%
  • No opinion – 17%.
  • Once again, good news for Romney, his numbers are up, and he is in second place. He also performs well against Clinton, with nearly 1/3 of the electorate undecided. Finally, a poll from the land of liberals:

    National Journal Political Insiders Poll

  • John McCain 34%
  • Rudy Giuliani 22%
  • Mitt Romney 22%
  • Mike Huckabee 12%
  • Ron Paul 2%
  • Fred Thompson 1%
  • Ok, that is simple enough to understand, Mitt Romney gains just as much support from Democratic insiders even though his positions are more Conservative.

    Overall, these polls paint an extremely positive picture for Romney, and you would expect to see corresponding gains in national polls, right? Well, no. In fact, Romney has fallen 5% nationally since the start of the week, and today’s tracking poll shows him polling below Huckabee. From Rasmussen:

    Rasmussen Reports Daily National Republican Primary Tracking Poll

  • Giuliani – 20%
  • Thompson – 19%
  • McCain – 14%
  • Huckabee – 12%
  • Romney – 11%
  • Individually, each of these polls could be explained, and, in fact, the top three can be explained together. Similarly, the individual occurances in the daily tracker could be explained (Romney falling, Huckabee rising, the race getting tighter). What doesn’t make sense is why Romney would be falling nationally, but increasing his leads in individual states – including ones where he is not blitzing the airways.



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    2 responses to “Ok, the first person to explain this…

    1. jrcutler

      I think the generalized decrease in National numbers as of late is reflective of more options opened to veiw in states that are both late-voting (Feb 5th or later) and Southern states. I am referring to a Thompson-Huckabee combination instead of just a Thompson option singularly. Huckabee has made a good first impression and has capitalized on Thompson’s downward trend nationally. The big question is “Why is Romney stagnating nationally?” and the simple answer is…mormonism. Call me a fool if you wish, but the national image of Romney is that he is a mormon and was good in business. Those who meet him and get to know him and his positions are the ones who chose him most often in polling, but most will not vote for Romney in a poll if all they know about him is that he is a mormon and that he is good at business. The “Black Hole” states, which have not been polled and who are next to dead last in the voting process must be showing a significant bearing on Romney’s numbers nationally. I will generally say that the “Black hole” states, whom no one in either party cares about right now, are very ignorant of the race and the stances of position.

      Therefore, there are 3 general theories I have
      1. Romney’s superficial recognition as a mormon businessman doesn’t win over the superficial voters and may actually hurt his chances with them as time goes by. Please take note that it is my opinion that superficial voters that stay superficial even late in the primary voting season will probably not go out and vote.
      2. Huckabee all of the sudden becoming more noticed may create more options for the southern voter states that are late in the primary calendar, which may steal more votes away from non-southern raised Republican candidates.
      3. The “Black Hole” states which are those states that we have no state polling data and which generally speaking are uninformed about the primary race, may very well be hating Romney more and more as the time goes by as they find out the bare minimum of what Romney is about, leading to a 3-6 percent decrease in national numbers from time to time from Romney’s average numbers.

      All these theories center around one general theme, and that is ignorance-based. National polls I consider to be ignorant polls.

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