I don’t want to overstate this, but today has probably been one of the best days for the Romney Campaign since his announcement. A combination of good polling and an important endorsement could help give Romney that final boost he needs to get an insurmountable lock on the nomination.
Starting with the Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll:
Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll – November 13, 2007
Rudy Giuliani 27% Mitt Romney 16% John McCain 13% Fred Thompson 11% Mike Huckabee 11% Ron Paul 5%
Thompson is now tied with Huckabee, and that could be very bad news for his campaign. It is hard to tell how long Fred could stay in the race if Huckabee starts to look like the choice of remaining Evangelical holdouts – those looking for the “perfect” candidate and unhappy with the top tier as it exists today (Huckabee not included). I’ll refrain from making any kind of bold prediction, but I believe that if Fred goes into a free-fall, it could snowball him down into the low single digits, as those above-mentioned holdouts go to Huck while Conservatives not impressed with Mike’s nanny-stating and soft-on-immigration positions jump ship to Romney.
Another important poll from Rasmussen involves the public’s perception of which GOP candidate is the most Conservative. Apart from the normal tracking poll, Rasmussen also asks voters who they believe the most Conservative candidate is, and who the most electable candidate is. While Rudy holds the electability title, Romney has de-throned Thompson as the most Conservative. A word about the poll below, the question asked is not actually “who do you believe is the most Conservative”, instead, it asks voters if they view a candidate as Conservative, Moderate, or Liberal – which explains why the numbers do not add up to 100%. Here is the poll:
Once again, great news for the Romney campaign.
Finally, an important California endorsement for Romney:
The California Republican Assembly, reportedly California’s largest and most conservative group of political volunteers, voted to endorse Mitt Romney over the weekend at their annual convention.
This endorsement is surprising on a few different levels:
- The CRA held a straw poll this past summer where Fred Thompson was the favorite, garnering 25% of the members’ votes. It was assumed if the CRA was going to endorse (see below), it would be Thompson.
- Heading into the convention, it was widely speculated that the CRA members were too divided and would not end up endorsing anyone at all — to gain a CRA endorsement, a candidate must receive 2/3 of the votes.
- Tom McClintock, a Thompson backer, was at the event, as was Alan Keyes and a bunch on Ron Paul advocates.
The endorsement won’t offer much in the way of finances, but it does add the all important organizational and logistical support, as well as giving Romney added volunteers in the state.
Thanks to R4’08 for the details on the CA endorsement.