It Looks Like a Huck-a-bust…

Generally, any poll that shows major changes to the race needs another poll with similar results to make it believable. That is why a pair of Rasmussen polls are both good news for Romney in Iowa, and what looks like a bad statistical outlier in New Hampshire.

Starting with Iowa, where it appears the the long-awaited Huck-a-bust has finally become a reality. Although Romney does not lead in this poll, he is only trailing by 1%, a significant improvement from the last Rasmussen poll that had Huckabee up by 16%. Here is the poll:

RASMUSSEN GOP IOWA CAUCUS – 12/19/07

  • Huckabee – 28% (39)
  • Romney – 27% (23)
  • McCain – 14% (6)
  • Thompson – 8% (8)
  • Giuliani – 8% (8)
  • Paul – 6% (5)
  • Tancredo – 2% (3)
  • Hunter – 1% (1)
  • This poll was conducted on Dec. 17, and, like I said, is extremely good news for Romney. Now, moving on to New Hampshire…

    We got two NH polls out today, both showing Romney leading, and both showing a bump for McCain, but in this poll, it looks like Rasmussen may have missed the mark a little bit:

    CNN GOP New Hampshire Primary – December 19, 2007

    Romney 34% (32)
    McCain 22% (19)
    Guiliani 16% (19)
    Huckabee 10% (9)
    Paul 5% (7)
    Thompson 1% (1)
    Tancredo 1% (1)
    Hunter 1% (0)

    Rasmussen GOP New Hampshire Primary – December 19, 2007

  • Mitt Romney 31% (33%)
  • John McCain 27% (18%)
  • Rudy Giuliani 13% (15%)
  • Mike Huckabee 11% (14%)
  • Ron Paul 7% (8%)
  • Fred Thompson 3% (2%)
  • Tom Tancredo 1% (3%)
  •  

    McCain has had a string of nice endrosements out over the last week, so I am not surprised that he has moved up, but I think Rasmussen simply produced a funny poll – the CNN results were conducted at the same time, and shows a race much closer to other recent polls. We are just going to have to wait until another NH poll comes out, but, at this point, I don’t see any real cause for concern.

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    1 Comment

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    One response to “It Looks Like a Huck-a-bust…

    1. I think a big shift might come in the next week as Tancredo bows out. Sure, he’s mired at the bottom. But remember, there are still a lot of undecideds. Taking 1% off the bottom puts 5% in play, because a lot of the undecideds have just been waiting for the field to narrow.

      Then the question will be “does Tancredo endorse?” If he does, then not only does his 1% move to another candidate, but a lot of that 5% moves with it. People like momentum. Undecideds often break for whoever they see getting the good press at the last minute.

      That could, depending on where it goes, be a nice shift. Then, more undecideds glom on to the recipient of that shift, because they see it as momentum and they want to back someone on the way up.

      Next thing you know, numbers have changed as much as 10%.

      I expect a radically different ranking by Christmas.

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