Republicans get a treat this Saturday – a double Primary. The day after tomorrow, both South Carolina and Nevada will cast ballots. These will be among the last primaries until Florida, and could shape the race going into that state. South Carolina technically has more delegates, but, because they broke Party Rules, Nevada has more.
So, who is expected to do what? Well, Romney will probably win NV – where a relatively high Mormon population, low voter turnout, and a strong GOTV organization by the Romney campaign should make the results favor Mitt. South Carolina, on the other hand, will probably not go for Romney. He hasn’t put much effort into it (when compared to other states), and if there was ever an early state where Romney was not supposed to have a shot, SC was it. The state is both heavily Evangelical, and heavily Southern – two groups that tend to like to vote for there own. The only thing that Romney really needs to get out of South Carolina is a third-place finish, behind McCain and Huckabee, but ahead of Thompson. That, coupled with a Nevada win, could make Romney the top pick of Reagan Conservatives, and pit him against the winner of the SC primary in a head-to-head battle in Florida. A second-place finish is also possible, and, if it was paired with a McCain win, could shake up the race in a huge way. A fourth place finish is also possible, but would not serve to be a serious hit to the campaign.
Then we go to Floirda – which may very well decide if we have a nominee before the Convention. More on that Saturday.