To be completely honest, I don’t have a clue anymore. When his name first surfaced, I did not think he would actually jump into the race. Then, as his popularity and support increased, I thought he would, even reporting a rumored date on my site. Now, I am leaning back towards “not running.” Q2 has come and gone without an announcement. The Fourth of July has come and gone, without an announcement. Major speeches by Fred Thompson have come and gone, without an announcement. In addition, I cannot find one credible whisper on the Internet about a date. The best I heard was before the end of Q2 when he was going to enter “after the 4th holiday”. If that were true, the best time to announce would have been yesterday, a Saturday that gave him plenty of time to campaign, a large at-home audience to his announcement, and the top spot on all of the Sunday shows. If we do not hear an announcement or rumors of one within the next week or so, I don’t expect him to run.
While I do not know if he is going to run or not, I have a theory as to what may have been the deciding factor – the Q2 fundraising. Fred Thompson had set an extremely modest goal for himself – a goal that should have been easily attained if he has as much support as many say. The Christian Right and Conservative Southerners were supposedly lining up to back him. That should have given him at least close to his goal. It does not, however, look like he even came close. He has not released his numbers, which hints at a low total. If indeed, Fred Thompson does not enter, I think low-fundraising may be the reason.