Tag Archives: elections

The Challenges for the Tea-Party Movement

Those who had the opportunity to watch, or even better, attend one of the “tax day tea parties” being held acrossthe nation were witness to a rebirth of Conservative grassroots, a massive and critical victory for right-wing organization that now puts it closer to parring the forces of liberalism in the area of internet-based organization. Thousands of emails, telephone numbers, and addresses have obtained, many from those already active in politics, but many more from those waking up to th stench of Obama’s economic policies. Yet challenges remain for the movement, challenges – and the answers to them – that will dictate the future of the movement as either a one-time novelty or a ture political powerhouse.

The first challenge is to establish a clear and coherent message, as well as some leadership or organizational structure that can be used beyond the events of the past weeks to combat Democratic policies on taxes, spending, and other issues. Its easy to call the Tea-Party movement a success, but a success for what? For low taxes? For less spending? For those opposed to Government waste? For Ron Paul supporters? For Conservative Republicans? One of the largest problems with yesterday’s protests was the lack of clearly defined goals and positions, which left the meaning of the movement largely up to the interpretation of those either involved or watching. A quick review of video footage from yesterday’s protests will reveal a wide range of grievances and agendas, some complementary and respectable, others more extreme, and, in some cases, in clear contradiction to each other. Signs for Ron Paul, Sarah Palin, the Fair Tax, the Flat Tax, No Taxes, and other candidates and causes are the direct consequence of the failure to produce clearly defined goals. If the movement is to be a success it must develop a coherent message that moves it from the category of disgruntled citizens letting of steam to the category of organized political activism.

The second challenge for the movement is to avoid hijacking by various groups and causes, most notably the fringe libertarian elements who were clearly present at many rallies. While these groups may share some goals with the broader movement, they have the potential to turn off others, particularly if their views on other issues – which the Conservative grassroots will hopefully expand to address – conflict with the views of the larger Conservative bloc.

Finally, the movement must embrace the participation of, and association with, organized political groups – particularly parties (mostly the GOP), and candidates. Without actively working with, and helping to elect, those politicians likely to support their cause, the movement will attract little besides television cameras. Alone, those participating in the tea parties have little power to directly affect the policies the government enforces, and its unlikely the vast majority of Democrats will be swayed.

Yesterday’s protests were an excellent first step, and provided the Conservative grassroots with an ideal launching groud for further protests, and the opportunity to expand deeper into fiscal and financial issues, as wall as to branch out in support of other causes not directly tied to the economy. If that potential is achieved, the movement will thrive, if it is not, the movement will wither and die like so many grassroots efforts in the past.

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Conservatives Must Shape – Not Follow – Public Opinion

A disturbing trend has developed among the Republican Party in recent years, one that has helped to put the GOP in its current position, and which may help to explain why social problems such as Abortion and Gay Marriage have not yet been completely settled in our favor. The Republican party has become content with simply following, rather than shaping, public opinion. Take, for example, the 2008 election. Rather than nominate a candidate who would have worked in strong support of Conservative Views, we nominated a candidate with “electability” – and, not unlike the 2004 nomination of John Kerry, were soundly defeated. The results are similar for issue-based politics, on everything from global warming to abortion to Gay Marriage, the tide of public opinion has either remained steady, or shifted towards the other side of the debate. This is the direct and unfortunate result of the GOP’s  failure to wage the kind of around-the-clock issues debate demanded by this era of constant elections. No longer can we have a public push for Conservative policies that is limited to the six months before each election, nor can we assume that American opinion will not be shaped by the never-ending push put forward by liberals opposed to Republican and Conservative policies.

Perhaps most disturbing is the view, apparently shared by some within the Republican party, is that public opinion is some how unchangeable, like a poker hand – where you can only do the best you can with the cards you get. This is most visible among those who believe that the GOP must resign itself to the “fact” that socially liberal policies – such as abortion and Gay Marriage – will always be legal. But if those things are to become – or remain – legal, it will be because Conservatives did not succeed in changing mind, likely a result of their failure to offer an alternative to the liberal brainwashing offered by Hollywood, the MSM, and higher education. And those who think that it would end with cultural issues are flat wrong; as I’ve already noted, one of the largest liberal campaigns is on the issue of global warming – an issue with a much greater impact on the economic strength of the country than the social strength.

If Republicans are to remain both major players and Conservatives, then we must embark on a far larger public relations and issues-oriented campaign than either party has ever completed in American history. We must partner with grassroots and other organizations in favor of the Reganist policies of family, life, low taxes, and a strong military. We must use the Internet, television, radio, print, and all other mediums to remind Americans that it is our policies which helped to make American strong and secure, and that it is the policies offered by our opponents which will erode our social fabric, damage our economic power, and leave us weak in the area of foreign policy.

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Illegal Voting May Skew Florida Results

There are three types of ballots that a Florida primary voter can receive when they go to the polls: Democrats get a ballot with Democratic candidates on it, Republicans get a ballot with Republicans on it, and, because it is a closed primary, independents are supposed to get a ballot without candidates on it, instead, they get one with only ballot proposals listed.  Unfortunately in a state that has voting irregularities as it middle name, independents appear to be getting Republican ballots, and with the margin between the first and second place candidates totalling less than 1% in many polls, the inclusion of even a few hundred independents could swing the results, and all of the FL delegates, in a completely different direction. Here is an excerpt from a story published by the Sun-Sentinel:

“In northern Coral Springs, near the Sawgrass Expressway and Coral Ridge Drive, David Nirenberg arrived to vote as an independent. Nevertheless, he said poll workers insisted he choose a party ballot.

He said to me, ‘Are you Democrat or Republican?’ I said, ‘Neither, I am independent.’ He said, ‘Well, you have to pick one,”’ Nirenberg said.

In Florida, only those who declare a party are allowed to cast a vote in that party’s presidential primary.

Nirenberg said he tried to explain to the poll worker that he should not vote on a party ballot because of his “no party affiliation” status.

Nirenberg said a second poll worker was called over who agreed that independents should not use party ballots, but said they had received instructions to the contrary.

“He said, ‘Ya know, that is kind of funny, but it was what we were told.’ … I was shocked when they told me that.” Nirenberg said he went ahead and voted for John McCain.

We are going to have to wait until this evening to see what happens with the results, but the closeness of this race makes these reports extremely worrying. Lets just hope there aren’t too many Nirenbergs out there.

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McCain is Unacceptable…

…and I don’t just mean in the primaries. If John McCain becomes the Republican nominee, he won’t be getting my vote., and hopefully, he won’t get yours.  Even in a contest against Clinton or Obama, he is not an appealing – or even preferable – option.

While it may sound strange, or even traitorous, I have come to believe that there are worse things for the country, not to mention the Republican party, than four years of a Democrat. America has experienced Democratic Presidents in the past, and will undoubtedly experience them again. Liberal policies are not going anywhere anytime soon, and the best way to defend the country from those policies is to have a Strong and healthy Conservative opposition – either in the minority or the majority.

The Republican party is currently in an identity crisis, as well as an internal power struggle between the moderates (who want to move the party to the center) and the Conservatives (who want to return to Reaganite policies of strong defense, a strong economy, and strong families). There is simply no better display of this struggle than the close contest between Mitt Romney and John McCain. A victory in the primaries by McCain, followed by a victory in the general, I believe, would severely tilt the battle in favor of the moderates – and that would do far more lasting damage than having a Democrat in the White House. Not only would it damage the Conservative movement, but it would allow liberal to push many of their policies with the support of, or little opposition from, the other party. Conservatives must stop this from happening, and the best way to do that is by stopping McCain from getting into the White House – even if that means accepting a Democrat for four years.

Conservatism can survive a Democrat, I’m not sure that it could survive a takeover of the Republican party by McCain-style centrists.

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A Problem in the RCP Average

One of the good things about polling averages, such as the one maintained by Real Clear Politics,  is that they can take a large amount of data, and compress it down into neat little charts, which, barring errors or crazy polls being included, usually give you a fairly good idea of where the race actually stands. For example, RCP maintains an average of the six most recent Florida polls:

  Rudy Giuliani Mike Huckabee John McCain Mitt Romney
InsiderAdvantage* 19 12 23 30
SurveyUSA 18 14 30 28
Rasmussen 20 15 23 27
Mason-Dixon 18 15 26 30
Strategic Vision (R) 22 18 25 30
Herald/SPT/Bay9 15 15 25 23
RCP Average 18.2 15 25.3 25.2

Alright, it looks like McCain is holding a slim lead (very slim) over Mitt Romney, correct? Well, at least in the RCP, he is. But that is probably not an accurate representation of the situation on the ground. Why? Because, the InsiderAdvantage poll is flawed. Democrats and Independents are not allowed to vote in the Florida GOP Primary, and the deadline to switch registration has already past – yet the poll in question included independents and democrats – in fact, they were nearly 30% of the sample. Yet RCP has either not caught the error, or decided against using the sample of only Republicans. This distorts the results, and renders the RCP average nearly useless. Fortunately, however, Insider Advantage, as I said, also provided results for the GOP-only sample. I have typed up a new average containing the more accurate results:

  Rudy Giuliani Mike Huckabee John McCain Mitt Romney
InsiderAdvantage 19 12 23 30
SurveyUSA 18 14 30 28
Rasmussen 20 15 23 27
Mason-Dixon 18 15 26 30
Strategic Vision (R) 22 18 25 30
Herald/SPT/Bay9 15 15 25 23
RCP Average 18.2 15 25.3 28

Well, do I need to say any more? Who would have thought that, after facing challenges from both the left and right, losing both Iowa and New Hampshire, and enduring a non-stop hailstorm from the media, that he would be leading in Florida – one of only two states people thought he would be unable to win?

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Thompson to Drop Out?

I don’t have any special information, only what I have read on other sites, but there are three important facts that seem to point very strongly to Fred Thompson’s exit from the race:

  1) Fred Thompson’s mother’s condition is not good, and seemingly getting worse. This isn’t a political issue, but I think we have to accept the possibilities and their consequences.

2) According to Fox News, Fred’s staff has said that he “has no plans” to attend the upcoming debate in FL – although, apparently, he has not officially pulled out of the debate.

3) According to some people – and I have no way to confirm this, but Fred has pulled some fundraising links on his website, or something to that degree. Like I said, I can’t confirm it, but it deserves a mention.

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SC Results

Alright, well, we got most of what we wanted, Romney won Nevada, and McCain won South Carolina. It looks like Thompson narrowly beat Romney for third, but there is widespread speculation that Thompson will be dropping out soon anyway, so I’m not sure that part mattered.

 So, what now? Three words:

ON TO FLORIDA!!

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Romney Takes Nevada – Paul Takes Second

Mitt Romney

Well, that took longer than I expected. After nearly five hours, Republicans in Nevada have still not managed to count all the votes. They have, however, counted enough to allow me to officially call the state for Mitt Romney. About 80% of the votes are in, and it looks like Mitt Romney will get 4x the support of his nearest competitor, who, at least right now, is not John McCain, but Rep. Ron Paul.

So, what now? Well, South Carolina votes today as well, and we should have results in from there in a couple hours or so (it might take longer, McCain is seeking a court order to extend voting time). After that, we might see a shakeup if Thompson drops out, and then the race moves to Florida (actually, it already has, Romney was on his way to FL when the NV voting happened). FL is a close race, and Romney’s momentum, combined with new worries about the Economy, could give him a boost. We’ll see what happens, but I like out chances. GO MITT!!!

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Why I’m Supporting McCain in South Carolina

Its is almost guaranteed that Romney will win Nevada tomorrow morning (and I do mean morning – the caucus starts at 9 AM PST). South Carolina will also vote tomorrow, though the results are much less certain. In reality, however, both states are only pre-game for Florida. NV and SC will unquestionably have a role to play – and not a small one, either, but the real race to watch is Florida. It is Florida that could really shake up the race, and it is Florida that could set the direction of the race for Super Tuesday. There is a very good chance that the results in Florida could decide who wins the most delegates on Super Tuesday, and whether or not we have a nominee before the convention in September.

So, about Florida, who will win? Well, I don’t know – and neither does anybody else. Period. But, the way I have it figured out, Florida will probably be, at least at the beginning, a close race between three candidates: Mitt Romney (winner of NV), Rudy Giuliani (who has bet the house on FL), and the currently-unknown winner of the South Carolina primary. The way I see it, Romney needs to place in second in Florida, or a close third if it is within 5% of the top spot to have a good shot at being the Super Tuesday winner.

Its that last part that brings me to the main point of this post – why I want McCain to win in South Carolina. Of course, a Romney win would be the best option, but that is extremely unlikely. Romney needs to shoot for third, and, with a little luck, we might even get second (don’t bet money on that, though). So why do I want McCain to win? Simple. He’s a moderate, and will split the moderate vote with Giuliani. This, combined with hard campaigning and new-found support from Thompson and Huckabee fans, could very well put Romney on top in FL, which could catapult him to huge victories on Super Tuesday. I’ve spent much of the day defending my position, as many other Romney supporters want Huck to win SC, arguing that Huckabee is easier to beat than McCain, and, in a two-man race, they are right, Huckabee is less of a threat, but not in a three-man race with Giuliani. As a [candidate perceived to be] Conservative, a Huckabee with momentum poses a much greater danger to Romney, both because he could take votes from Mitt, and because his SC win would make it harder to take votes from him.

If things unfold the right way tomorrow, Romney will take first in Nevada and third or better in SC – with McCain taking the top spot. Will it happen? I don’t know for sure, but there is a good chance it will.

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Looking ahead to Saturday

Republicans get a treat this Saturday – a double Primary. The day after tomorrow, both South Carolina and Nevada will cast ballots. These will be among the last primaries until Florida, and could shape the race going into that state. South Carolina technically has more delegates, but, because they broke Party Rules, Nevada has more.

So, who is expected to do what? Well, Romney will probably win NV – where a relatively high Mormon population, low voter turnout, and a strong GOTV organization by the Romney campaign should make the results favor Mitt. South Carolina, on the other hand, will probably not go for Romney. He hasn’t put much effort into it (when compared to other states), and if there was ever an early state where Romney was not supposed to have a shot, SC was it. The state is both heavily Evangelical, and heavily Southern – two groups that tend to like to vote for there own. The only thing that Romney really needs to get out of South Carolina is a third-place finish, behind McCain and Huckabee, but ahead of Thompson. That, coupled with a Nevada win, could make Romney the top pick of Reagan Conservatives, and pit him against the winner of the SC primary in a head-to-head battle in Florida. A second-place finish is also possible, and, if it was paired with a McCain win, could shake up the race in a huge way. A fourth place finish is also possible, but would not serve to be a serious hit to the campaign.

Then we go to Floirda – which may very well decide if we have a nominee before the Convention. More on that Saturday.

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